The U.S. power grid interconnection queue held over 2,060 gigawatts (GW) of active generation and storage capacity seeking grid access as of the end of 2025, according to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) data compiled through late 2025. In LBNL’s “Queued Up” 2025 Edition (which analyzes data through the end of 2024), historic withdrawal rates alongside relatively fewer new requests produced a 12% year-over-year decrease in total active queue volume — a figure distinct from, though numerically equal to, the 12% decline in solar capacity noted below. Over the same period, the median timeline for a project to move from interconnection request to commercial operation has doubled to over four years for projects built in 2018–2024, up from under two years for those built in 2000–2007 (Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, “Queued Up” 2025 Edition, emp.lbl.gov/queues).
The Data: What’s Happening
The bottleneck is driven by a structural mismatch between legacy “first-come, first-served” serial study processes and the surge in variable renewable and battery storage projects. Of the capacity that requested interconnection between 2000 and 2019, only 13% had reached commercial operations by the end of 2024, while 77% were withdrawn (Source: LBNL, same report).
The composition of the queue is also shifting. In LBNL’s 2025 Edition (data through end-2024), active natural gas capacity grew 72% year-over-year to 136 GW, while solar declined 12% (to 956 GW), storage declined 13% (to 890 GW), and wind fell 26% (to 271 GW) (Source: LBNL, “Queued Up” 2025 Edition, emp.lbl.gov/queues). Over 408 GW of capacity has already secured a draft or executed interconnection agreement but remains stalled prior to commercial operation (Source: LBNL, same report).
What’s Notable: FERC’s Regulatory Pivot
To address this, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued Order No. 2023, which took effect in November 2023. The rule mandates a transition to “first-ready, first-served” cluster studies, requiring transmission providers to group projects and complete studies within a firm 150-day window.
Crucially, the rule imposes stricter site control requirements (90% at request submission, 100% at facilities study execution) and introduces withdrawal penalties designed to deter speculative requests that inflate queue times for viable projects (Source: FERC Order 2023 Explainer, ferc.gov/explainer-interconnection-final-rule).
Risks and Counterpoints
The primary risk to this reform is execution lag. LBNL notes it is currently too early to measure the full impact of Order 2023, as compliance filings were not due until mid-2024. If transmission providers lack the internal staffing or modeling capacity to process clustered studies within the mandated 150 days, the bottleneck may persist despite the regulatory framework. Additionally, alternative transmission technologies (e.g., advanced conductors, power flow controls) mandated for evaluation in cluster studies may face their own supply chain constraints, delaying physical upgrades.
This is an AI Briefing — AI-generated analysis published under TLCapital.AI. It is not personal research or positions, and it is not investment advice. Figures are sourced to primary filings with dates noted throughout. Do your own diligence.