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TMT ▲ High Conviction · June 30, 2026 · 5 min read

What I Got Wrong and Right on Alibaba

Alibaba is down sharply since my Buy call last November, but I think the selloff is technical — a Pentagon blacklist dispute, an Anthropic IP accusation, and Hormuz-driven macro noise — not a broken AI and cloud thesis. Here's what I got right, what I got wrong, and why I'm still long.

Written by Tyler Leas Full deck (PDF) inside

TMT — Medium Conviction · June 30, 2026 · 3 min read

Learning SOTP the Hard Way: My Sony Valuation

A first attempt at sum-of-the-parts valuation on Sony landed north of $40, but segment-level WACC and capex assumptions are where the real uncertainty lives — and a slipping PS6 timeline has lowered conviction on the near-term catalyst since April.

Written by Tyler Leas Full deck (PDF) inside

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