TLCapital ai
Tyler Leas · Independent Equity Research

I cover TMT and AI infrastructure — with a view, a model, and a paper trail.

MBA (Maryland Smith), CFA Level 1 candidate, pivoting into finance from a technology background. This site is the evidence: full theses, valuation work, and honest post-mortems — published under my own name.

View Featured Research Download Resume

Hiring, or just want to talk markets? Book an intro call →

FIG. 01 — WatchlistLIVE
Coverage Universe
S&P 500 6,142 +0.4% NASDAQ 20,318 +0.6% WTI CRUDE 74.10 -1.2% NAT GAS 3.48 +2.8% US 10Y 4.21% +3bp GOOGL 172.55 -7.0% NVDA 184.20 +1.4%
MBA University of Maryland — Robert H. Smith School of Business
CFA Level 1 Candidate
Washington, D.C. Open to relocating
Coverage TMT + AI infrastructure · Energy & Industrials
Featured Research Written by Tyler Leas

The proof of work.

Full archive →
TMT ▲ High Conviction · Jun 30, 2026 · 5 min read

What I Got Wrong and Right on Alibaba

Alibaba is down sharply since my Buy call last November, but I think the selloff is technical — a Pentagon blacklist dispute, an Anthropic IP accusation, and Hormuz-driven macro noise — not a broken AI and cloud thesis. Here's what I got right, what I got wrong, and why I'm still long.

By Tyler Leas Full deck (PDF) inside
TMT — Medium Conviction · Jun 30, 2026 · 3 min read

Learning SOTP the Hard Way: My Sony Valuation

A first attempt at sum-of-the-parts valuation on Sony landed north of $40, but segment-level WACC and capex assumptions are where the real uncertainty lives — and a slipping PS6 timeline has lowered conviction on the near-term catalyst since April.

By Tyler Leas Full deck (PDF) inside
Coverage
Primary Lane

TMT + AI Infrastructure

Semis, hyperscalers, data centers, and the platform economics of the AI capex cycle. This is the primary lane: full theses, valuation work, and public post-mortems.

Published so far 2 deep dives · 25 briefings Browse TMT research →
Secondary coverage

Energy

Power markets, grid capex, gas, and nuclear — the physical constraint on the AI buildout.

29 briefings
Secondary coverage

Industrials

Transformers, switchgear, and cooling — the picks-and-shovels supplying the same cycle.

Coverage expanding
Process

How the work gets done.

Full methodology →
01

Source

Ideas from capex trails, filings, and primary documents — not headlines.

02

Understand

Segment builds, unit economics, and what actually drives the cash flows.

03

Value

DCF, comps, and sum-of-the-parts — with the assumptions shown, not hidden.

04

Publish & revisit

A conviction rating, what would change my mind, and public post-mortems.

The Philosophy
“I write the research I wish existed when I was a retail investor.”
Tyler Leas Founder, TLCapital.AI

MBA, University of Maryland (Smith) · CFA Level 1 Candidate · TMT + AI infrastructure research from Washington, D.C.

AI-Generated / AI-Assisted 54 published

The AI briefing desk.

A separate, clearly labeled pipeline: an AI system drafts short daily market briefings which I review before publishing. They carry no personal byline and never mix with my authored research — they're here to show range, not to pad the archive.

Browse briefings →
Get in touch

Hiring for an equity research seat?

I'm based in Washington, D.C. and open to relocating. The fastest way to evaluate me is the research itself — then let's talk.

Book an intro call Download Resume

tyler.leas@outlook.com linkedin.com/in/tyler-leas