What this briefing covers
This briefing examines the recent surge in U.S. jet fuel production to record levels, analyzing the underlying market dynamics, price shifts, and global supply chain adjustments following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It assesses U.S. domestic production metrics, export trends, pricing data, and inventory levels.
The data / what’s happening
- U.S. jet fuel production increased significantly following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, 2026.
- In the week ending May 1, the four-week average estimate of U.S. jet fuel production surpassed 2.0 million barrels per day (b/d) for the first time on record.
- U.S. Gulf Coast Jet Fuel Spot prices averaged $3.91 per gallon from March through May 2026, approximately double the price observed at the start of the year.
- The jet fuel crack spread on the U.S. Gulf Coast averaged $1.25/gal during the same period, rising from $0.42/gal at the beginning of the year.
- Jet fuel prices in Europe and Asia also averaged approximately double their start-of-year levels from March to May.
- U.S. jet fuel exports reached record highs in April and May 2026.
- As of May 29, U.S. jet fuel inventories totaled 45 million barrels, representing a level 7% above the 2021–2025 average.
What’s notable or overlooked
- U.S. refiners have strategically shifted refinery yields to maximize jet fuel output, capitalizing on elevated margins and regional supply deficits.
- While domestic inventories remain above average, the U.S. West Coast—which relies heavily on jet fuel imports—has experienced a recent decline in import volumes, creating a localized dependency on inventory draws.
- Price premiums in Europe and Asia during March and April served as the primary catalyst for redirecting U.S. exports to replace diminished Middle Eastern supply to those regions.
The Tension
U.S. refiners are currently maximizing jet fuel production to respond to elevated global prices and refining margins. This production response was directly triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, which disrupted traditional supply routes for Europe and Asia. Consequently, the four-week average estimate of U.S. jet fuel production surpassed 2.0 million b/d for the first time on record in the week ending May 1. U.S. Gulf Coast Jet Fuel Spot prices averaged $3.91 per gallon from March through May, roughly double the start-of-year levels, while the regional crack spread expanded to $1.25/gal from $0.42/gal. Responding to these international premiums, U.S. jet fuel exports reached record highs in April and May. Despite these elevated export volumes, domestic jet fuel inventories remained resilient, totaling 45 million barrels as of May 29, which is 7% above the 2021–2025 average.
Risks / counterpoints
- If the recent decline in jet fuel imports to the U.S. West Coast continues, the region may be forced to increase draws from existing inventories, potentially straining regional supply buffers.
- Global jet fuel prices have begun to converge with U.S. Gulf Coast levels, and absolute prices in all three major regions have retreated from their April peaks as concerns regarding an imminent jet fuel shortage have eased.
- Sustaining record production levels requires continuous above-average refinery runs, which may be constrained by crude oil input costs or seasonal maintenance schedules.
DISCLOSURE: This is an AI Briefing — AI-generated analysis published under TLCapital.AI. It is not personal research or positions, and it is not investment advice. Figures are sourced to primary filings with dates noted throughout. Do your own diligence.